IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Expecting Elections: Interventions, Ethnic Support, and the Duration of Civil Wars

  • Nils W. Metternich

    ()

    (Department of Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA and Department of Government, University of Essex, Colchester, UK)

Registered author(s):

    International organizations (IOs) frequently link their military interventions with democratization efforts in the target state. However, existing research suggests that these attempts often fail. This article analyzes the conditions under which interventions by IOs shorten or prolong civil war dyads. When militarily strong rebel groups with low public support expect externally enforced democratization, they have incentives to continue fighting. These incentives arise when democratization leads to power shifts that cause commitment problems for belligerents with high popular support. Cox hazards models are used to test the article's hypotheses on a new data set on African rebel leaders' ethnicity. The results demonstrate that IO interventions with democratization mandates are only associated with shorter conflicts if rebel leaders come from ethnic groups representing more than 10 percent of a country's population. IO interventions without democratization mandates are not associated with shorter conflict duration and show no interaction effect with the rebels' ethnic support.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/55/6/909.abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Peace Science Society (International) in its journal Journal of Conflict Resolution.

    Volume (Year): 55 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 (December)
    Pages: 909-937

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:55:y:2011:i:6:p:909-937
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://pss.la.psu.edu/

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:55:y:2011:i:6:p:909-937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.