What Drives Military Expenditure? A South African Study

Two facts point to the need to better understand military expenditure allocations in developing countries. The first is that the number and intensity of armed conflicts worldwide have fallen consistently and significantly since 1990 and in sub-Saharan Africa since 1999. World military expenditure fell in real terms during the 1990s but has increased since 1999 and South Africa’s milex has mirrored these movements. The second is that studies which have attempted to explain milex using standard economic techniques typically explain only about half of the differences between countries. However, some potentially influential variables are not amenable to regression analysis and this article employs additional data drawn from interviews with key informants and secondary sources. It finds that the procedures used to decide on the level and composition of South Africa’s milex are clearly formulated, transparent and are adhered to with respect to recurrent expenditures. However, recent military procurement history reveals increasing Cabinet authoritarianism, a lack of transparency, significant opportunities for corruption and, arguably, inappropriate decisions.