Technology and the Future: A New Look at Kondratieff Cycles

This article considers some of the possible ways in which technological Innovation may facilitate or endanger economic progress in the future. It does so within the general framework of the Kondratieff cycles. Explanations of these phenomena are considered under three categories—economic, technological and socio-economic and the relationship between micro- and macro-economic perspectives examined in greater detail. It then considers whether such cycles are self-limiting or whether they are limited by external resource constraints. The implications for the fifth and, more speculatively, the sixth Kondratieff Cycles are examined. It is argued that newly industrialising countries need not be forced to follow the same route as already industrialised countries and that more countries in turn may find alternative routes to economic development—specifically the choice between “information technology†and “alternative technology†.