Who Will Lead Global Growth? Slowing Trends are the ‘New Normal’

Focusing on the US, Japan, Germany and China—four large economies that make up almost half of the world’s GDP—this article analyses each of their growth stories independently and comparatively. None of these economies were doing well by historical measures, years after the financial crisis of 2008. The article addresses possible reasons for this slow growth, and which country might lead growth into the future. The results of our review suggest that rapid growth is not likely to return to most parts of the world. Similar growth trends are apparent across our four economies despite clear differences in institutions and circumstances. The 2008 financial shock was a turning point in terms of how these economies function, but we see long-term trends that began before the crisis. Of the four economies, China is likely to increasingly become a key determinant of global growth—at least until its aging demographics kick in.