IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/fbbsrw/v13y2024i2p232-242.html

Cointegration and Causality Between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from India’s Post Economic Reform Period

Author

Listed:
  • Kunwar Milind Singh

Abstract

International trade and capital flows are the key macroeconomic indicators of a country’s balance of payment, and they impact the real economy. This study estimates the long-run association between exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth since India’s economic reform in 1991 until 2019. Johansen multivariate cointegration method has been adopted to study this association and to develop long-run cointegration model. The augmented Dickey–Fuller test results show that variables are non-stationary at level and stationary at first difference. The cointegration model suggests a long-run relationship among GDP per person employed (GDPPE), exports, imports and FDI. The result shows that exports are the major determinant and positively influences the GDPPE whereas imports and FDI negatively influence GDPPE. The imports affect GDPPE more negatively than FDI. The vector error correction model finds long-run causality from GDPPE, exports and imports towards FDI and short-run causality from GDPPE towards FDI, imports towards FDI and GDPPE towards exports. The policy focus should be on export promotion and to closely watch the causal effect of labour productivity on FDI and exports, and imports on FDI.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunwar Milind Singh, 2024. "Cointegration and Causality Between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from India’s Post Economic Reform Period," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 13(2), pages 232-242, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fbbsrw:v:13:y:2024:i:2:p:232-242
    DOI: 10.1177/23197145211057327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/23197145211057327
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/23197145211057327?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Mohammed Ershad Hussain & Mahfuzul Haque, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Bangladesh," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Justin Paul & Pravin Jadhav, 2019. "Institutional determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: evidence from emerging markets," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 245-261, August.
    4. Luiz R. de Mello Jr., 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Selective Survey," Studies in Economics 9701, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    5. Romer, Paul, 1993. "Idea gaps and object gaps in economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 543-573, December.
    6. Redwanur Rahman & Saleh Shahriar & Sokvibol Kea, 2019. "Determinants of Exports: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Bangladeshi Textile and Clothing Industries," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 8(3), pages 229-244, September.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Iamsiraroj, Sasi, 2016. "The foreign direct investment–economic growth nexus," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 116-133.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. Suryakanta Nayak & Dukhabandhu Sahoo, 2020. "Dimensions of Foreign Direct Investment Inflow in India After 1991," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 9(2), pages 106-117, June.
    11. repec:icf:icfjfe:v:08:y:2010:i:3:p:59-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    13. Mohd Azam Khan & Imran Ahmad, 2017. "An Analysis of Export Pattern and Competitiveness of India-China in Global and Bilateral Market," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 6(2), pages 9-18, April.
    14. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    15. repec:icf:icfjpf:v:09:y:2011:i:3:p:23-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Alex Kouznetsov, 2009. "Country conditions in emerging markets and their effects on entry mode decisions of multinational manufacturing enterprises," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(4), pages 375-388, September.
    17. Pratibha S.Gaikwad, 2013. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Gross Domestic Production (GDP) in Indian Economy," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 5(8), pages 411-416.
    18. Sudhir Rana & Partha P. Saikia & Munim K. Barai, 2018. "Globalization and Indian Manufacturing Enterprises," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 7(3), pages 167-175, September.
    19. Luiz de Mello, 1997. "Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34.
    20. repec:bla:manchs:v:70:y:2002:i:3:p:460-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. NPG Samantha & Liu Haiyun, 2017. "The Impact of FDI on the Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach to Co-integration," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 3(5), pages 70-82, December.
    22. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    23. Nanda R. Shrestha & Wilbur I. Smith & Lydia McKinley‐Floyd & Kenneth R. Gray, 2008. "Management and national development in Kenya: toward a normative framework," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 244-267, July.
    24. Arvind Virmani, 2004. "Economic reforms: Policy and institutions some lessons from Indian reforms," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 121, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    25. Dierk Herzer, 2012. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Really Affect Developing Countries' Growth?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 396-414, May.
    26. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    27. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu & Peter Sinclair, 2009. "Trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1603-1612.
    28. V. N. Balasubramanyam & David Sapsford & David Griffiths, 2002. "Regional Integration Agreements and Foreign Direct Investment: Theory and Preliminary Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(3), pages 460-482, June.
    29. Jeffrey Kouton, 2019. "Relationship between economic freedom and inclusive growth: a dynamic panel analysis for sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 21(1), pages 143-165, June.
    30. Ozturk, I., 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment – Growht Nexus: A Review of The Recent Literature," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 79-98.
    31. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mounir Belloumi & Atef Alshehry, 2018. "The Impacts of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investments on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    3. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    4. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Fortuna, Natércia, 2010. "Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-350, April.
    5. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    6. Sangjoon Jun, 2015. "The Nexus between FDI and Growth in the SAARC Member Countries," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 19(1), pages 39-70.
    7. Bibhuti Sarker & Farid Khan, 2020. "Nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Bangladesh: an augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Role of Domestic Financial Sector," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:18, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    9. Ghosh Madanmohan & Wang Weimin, 2010. "Does FDI Accelerate Economic Growth? The OECD Experience Based on Panel Data Estimates for the Period 1980-2004," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Waseem Alam & Firdos Ikram & Pushp Kumar & Mohammad Haseeb & Nazim Ali, 2024. "Asymmetric Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: Fresh Evidence from India Using NARDL Simulation," Millennial Asia, , vol. 15(3), pages 409-428, September.
    11. P Pegkas & C Tsamadias, 2016. "How important are foreign and domestic investments, exports and human capital for Greece's economic growth?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(1), pages 23-45, March.
    12. Acaravci, Ali & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from New EU Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 52-67, June.
    13. Fedderke, J.W. & Romm, A.T., 2006. "Growth impact and determinants of foreign direct investment into South Africa, 1956-2003," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 738-760, September.
    14. Hian Teck HOON & Frank S T Hsiao & Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao, 2020. "FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia — Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Development Strategies of Open Economies Cases from Emerging East and Southeast Asia, chapter 4, pages 81-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Mohammad I. Elian & Nabeel Sawalha & Ahmed Bani-Mustafa, 2020. "Revisiting the FDI–Growth Nexus: ARDL Bound Test for BRICS Standalone Economies," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(6), pages 1-1, June.
    16. Jeffrey A. EDWARDS & Cephas B. NAANWAAB & Alfredo A. ROMERO, 2017. "Effect of FDI on real per capita GDP Growth: A Rolling Window Panel Analysis of 60 countries, 1982-2011," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(1), pages 19-36.
    17. Temiz, Dilek & Gökmen, Aytaç, 2014. "FDI inflow as an international business operation by MNCs and economic growth: An empirical study on Turkey," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 145-154.
    18. Rosemary Stanley Taylor, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth. Analysis of sectoral foreign direct investment in Tanzania," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 699-717, December.
    19. Mohammed Abdullah & Murshed Chowdhury, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investment and Total Factor Productivity: Any Nexus?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(2), pages 164-190, May.
    20. Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Natércia Fortuna, 2006. "Human capital, trade and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," FEP Working Papers 226, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:fbbsrw:v:13:y:2024:i:2:p:232-242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.