Housing cost burden, affordable housing, and migration intentions: Evidence from urban residents in China

China’s urban housing markets are increasingly strained by internal migration, which drives up housing prices. Migration decisions typically reflect a rational assessment of costs and benefits. When housing costs are high, they may outweigh expected income gains, deterring relocation. While previous studies have examined the links between housing costs and migration or between affordable housing and migration separately, few have explored the mediating role of affordable housing demand in housing-cost-driven migration. To fill this gap, a survey of 2250 residents aged 20 and above across 35 Chinese cities was conducted. Respondents reported their perceived housing cost burdens, perceived need for affordable housing, and migration intentions. Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to estimate both the direct effect of housing costs on migration intentions and the indirect effect mediated by the perceived need for affordable housing. Findings reveal that higher housing cost burdens increase migration intentions, while a stronger perceived need for affordable housing reduces them. These results suggest that expanding access to affordable housing can relieve migration pressures and promote urban population stability, highlighting the importance of inclusive housing policies in high-cost urban areas.