IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envirb/v52y2025i4p949-964.html

Multidimensional factors correlated with population changes according to city size in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Haruka Kato

Abstract

Many developed countries need to plan urban policies based on multidimensional factors related to population change. However, empirical research has been inconsistent with respect to identifying these factors, including economic-, social-, and urban-planning-related factors. The purpose of this study is to clarify the nonlinear multidimensional factors that are correlated with population changes according to the city size. In the analysis, the population change rate was defined as the outcome variable, and 269 economic, social, and educational index (ESE index) were used as predictor variables. Data were stratified according to three city sizes. Using the ESE index, the XGBoost algorithm was used to analyze the nonlinear relationship between the population change rate and multidimensional data. As a key result, population changes were strongly correlated with social-related indicators, such as the population change rate among persons ages 0–14 years in small-sized cities, the natural population change rate in medium-sized cities, and the migration change rate in large-sized cities. Regarding the population decline, Japan has 1304 shrinking cities, which are primarily comprised of medium-sized and small-sized cities. In such cities, other than social-related factors, population changes correlated with the financial strength index as an economic-related factor in medium-sized cities and the designation of underpopulated areas as an urban-planning-related factor in small-sized cities. Among the multidimensional factors, cities of different sizes were characterized by factors other than social-related indicators. These multifaceted factors could provide preliminary insights for urban policymakers to explore various policy measures on which they need to focus, depending on the city’s size.

Suggested Citation

  • Haruka Kato, 2025. "Multidimensional factors correlated with population changes according to city size in Japan," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 52(4), pages 949-964, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:52:y:2025:i:4:p:949-964
    DOI: 10.1177/23998083241274381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/23998083241274381
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/23998083241274381?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Kailai & Wang, Xize, 2021. "Generational Differences in Automobility: Comparing America's Millennials and Gen Xers Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," SocArXiv n3a9e, Center for Open Science.
    2. Stefanie Döringer & Yuta Uchiyama & Marianne Penker & Ryo Kohsaka, 2020. "A meta-analysis of shrinking cities in Europe and Japan. Towards an integrative research agenda," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(9), pages 1693-1712, September.
    3. Elena Batunova & Maria Gunko, 2018. "Urban shrinkage: an unspoken challenge of spatial planning in Russian small and medium-sized cities," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 1580-1597, August.
    4. repec:osf:socarx:n3a9e_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Brent D. Ryan & Shuqi Gao, 2019. "Plan Implementation Challenges in a Shrinking City," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 85(4), pages 424-444, October.
    6. Cristina Martinez‐Fernandez & Chung‐Tong Wu & Laura K. Schatz & Nobuhisa Taira & José G. Vargas‐Hernández, 2012. "The Shrinking Mining City: Urban Dynamics and Contested Territory," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 245-260, March.
    7. Haruka Kato, 2023. "Urban modeling of shrinking cities through Bayesian network analysis using economic, social, and educational indicators: Case of Japanese cities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-13, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shouzhong Zhang & Limin Wang & Xiangli Wu, 2022. "Population Shrinkage, Public Service Levels, and Heterogeneity in Resource-Based Cities: Case Study of 112 Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-20, November.
    2. A. G. Makhrova & P. L. Kirillov & M. O. Balaban & L. Gao, 2023. "Post-Soviet Trajectories of Russian Shrinking Cities," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 712-724, December.
    3. Iwona Kantor-Pietraga & Aleksandra Zdyrko & Jakub Bednarczyk, 2021. "Semi-Natural Areas on Post-Mining Brownfields as an Opportunity to Strengthen the Attractiveness of a Small Town. An Example of Radzionków in Southern Poland," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Tong Wu & Beibei Ma & Yongyong Song, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns of County Population Shrinkage and Influencing Factors in the North–South Transitional Zone of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-22, November.
    5. Bingxin Li & Chennan He & Xue Jiang & Qiang Zheng & Jiashuang Li, 2025. "Land Use Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Shrinking Border Counties Based on the PLUS Model: A Case Study of Changbai County," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-29, July.
    6. Khan, Zeeshan & Hussain, Muzzammil & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Yang, Siqun & Jiao, Zhilun, 2020. "Natural resource abundance, technological innovation, and human capital nexus with financial development: A case study of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Jiao Zhang & Qian Wang & Yiping Xia & Katsunori Furuya, 2022. "Knowledge Map of Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development: A Visual Analysis Using CiteSpace," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, February.
    8. Shao, Shuai & Zhang, Xuebin & Yang, Lili, 2023. "Natural resource dependence and urban shrinkage: The role of human capital accumulation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. repec:osf:socarx:dj8av_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ruiying Liu, 2022. "Long-Term Development Perspectives in the Slow Crisis of Shrinkage: Strategies of Coping and Exiting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-30, August.
    11. Iwona Kantor-Pietraga, 2021. "Does One Decade of Urban Policy for the Shrinking City Make Visible Progress in Urban Re-Urbanization? A Case Study of Bytom, Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    12. Li, Qiangyi & Zeng, Fu'e & Liu, Shaohui & Yang, Mian & Xu, Fei, 2021. "The effects of China's sustainable development policy for resource-based cities on local industrial transformation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Rodrigo Castriota, 2024. "HOUSING BEYOND THE METROPOLIS: Inhabiting Extractivism and Extensions in Urban Amazonia," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 32-52, January.
    14. Xiaolei Huang & Jinpei Ou & Yingjian Huang & Shun Gao, 2023. "Exploring the Effects of Socioeconomic Factors and Urban Forms on CO 2 Emissions in Shrinking and Growing Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    15. Wang, Zhe & Teng, Yin-Pei & Wu, Shuzhao & Liu, Yuxiang & Liu, Xianchang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial system and natural resources extraction: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Min Wang & Shuqi Yang & Huajie Gao & Kahaer Abudu, 2021. "The Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Push-Pull Mechanism of Shrinking Counties: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-22, February.
    17. Lin, Hongbo & Zhang, Xiaoling & Chen, Zhenling & Zheng, Heyun, 2020. "Estimating the potential output and output gap for China's coal cities with pollutants reduction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Gregory, Gillian H., 2021. "Rendering mine closure governable and constraints to inclusive development in the Andean region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Tao, Tao & Cao, Jason, 2024. "Ineffective built environment interventions: How to reduce driving in American suburbs?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    20. Wei Liu & Yao Tong & Jing Zhang & Zuopeng Ma & Guolei Zhou & Yanjun Liu, 2022. "Hierarchical Correlates of the Shrinkage of Cities and Towns in Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, December.
    21. Yuanping Wang & Mu Lin & Jingxin Gao & Zhaoyin Zhou, 2021. "Fading Attraction of the Shrinking City: An Empirical Study from an Urban Resource Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:52:y:2025:i:4:p:949-964. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.