A spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between housing renovation, socioeconomic status, and urban forest ecosystems

Urban forest ecosystems are increasingly recognized as necessary components of a city's overall sustainability. The number of municipal governments planning and implementing urban forest management programs is rising, as the benefits of urban forest ecosystems are becoming common knowledge. However, the urban forest is an exceedingly complex and vulnerable social–ecological system that presents a wide array of management challenges. One area of concern that is understudied and worthy of investigation is the effects of housing renovation activities and neighborhood revitalization on the urban forest. The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of renovation activity as a significant source of disturbance in urban forest ecosystems. We conducted ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression analyses using canopy cover, building permit data, and socioeconomic variables in Toronto, Canada. We then conducted a parcel-level assessment of tree mortality using ortho-imagery from 2003 and 2014 and government open data describing 16 years of renovation activity. Findings suggest that renovation activity, as indicated by building permit abundance, is a possible cause of tree mortality and subsequently a source of urban forest disturbance. Our findings also suggest that the relationship between renovation activity and canopy cover is highly complex, and is likely influenced by residential tree planting rates, land use mix, and different trajectories of urban change.