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Arming to fight: Rebel-government militarization and the escalation of violence in civil wars

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Pamp

    (163386LMU Munich, Germany)

  • Paul W. Thurner

    (163386LMU Munich, Germany)

  • Paul Binder

    (163386LMU Munich, Germany)

  • Andreas Mehltretter

    (163386LMU Munich, Germany)

Abstract

Do more weapons in the hands of rebel groups escalate civil wars? We address this question using a recently published dataset on the armaments of 270 non-state actors. We provide a comprehensive overview of their arsenals and utilize this information in a dyadic analysis that also considers the effects of governments’ weapons stock. We show that better-armed rebel groups are involved in higher-intensity conflicts only if they receive no external support. Moreover, conventional warfare is related to higher casualty numbers and the impact of arms provision to governments is conditional on the relative military strength of the opposing rebels.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Pamp & Paul W. Thurner & Paul Binder & Andreas Mehltretter, 2025. "Arming to fight: Rebel-government militarization and the escalation of violence in civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(4), pages 357-379, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:42:y:2025:i:4:p:357-379
    DOI: 10.1177/07388942241263028
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