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A game of domestic imperatives: Audience costs and conflict avoidance

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  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Abstract

I propose an audience costs game with considerations added from selectorate theory. We see that winning coalition and selectorate size have competing effects on conflict choices in an audience costs setting. Large coalition regimes face lower audience costs than non-democracies, making it harder for them to commit to war. But larger selectorates increase the value of office, making conflict escalation more attractive. Coalition effects dominate when interacted with selectorate size. Evidence from 1816–2014 supports the game's implications. The results indicate that both threat initiation and dispute resolution are better predicted by focusing on domestic, leader-specific variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 2023. "A game of domestic imperatives: Audience costs and conflict avoidance," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(6), pages 599-618, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:40:y:2023:i:6:p:599-618
    DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153598
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fearon, James D., 1994. "Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 577-592, September.
    2. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno & Siverson, Randolph M., 1995. "War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(4), pages 841-855, December.
    3. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno & Smith, Alastair, 2018. "Political Loyalty and Leader Health," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 13(4), pages 333-361, October.
    4. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno & Morrow, James D. & Siverson, Randolph M. & Smith, Alastair, 1999. "An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 791-807, December.
    5. James Raymond Vreeland, 2008. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(3), pages 401-425, June.
    6. Powell, Robert, 2006. "War as a Commitment Problem," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 169-203, January.
    7. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Alastair Smith, 2022. "A new indicator of coalition size: Tests against standard regime‐type indicators," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(2), pages 365-379, March.
    8. Giacomo Chiozza & H. E. Goemans, 2004. "International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 604-619, July.
    9. Smith, Alastair, 1998. "International Crises and Domestic Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(3), pages 623-638, September.
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