British Hegemony and Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1815-1939

In this paper, we examine some competing explanations of the Pax Britannia, the long era of relative peace that marks the 19th century. We test hypotheses derived from balance of power theory and from theories of hegemonic order (including the hegemonic stability theory of Gilpin, the political long-cycle theory of Modelski, Thompson and their associates, world systems theory, and the economic long-cycle theory of Kondratieff) regarding the occurrence of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) for 1815-1939. Using indicators of British economic and military capacity, the regression analyses indicate that the rise and fall of British military and economic capacity associates inversely some measures of major power MIDs. From the theoretical models of phases of hegemonic order, we find no support for the implications of the Gilpin and the World systems models. Support for the double cobweb model (Modelski) exists, but the model is very sensitive to a single data point. Finally, eras of world economic expansion (from the Kondratieff model) appear to be positively associated with the incidence of MIDs.