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Deterministic Quasi-Periodic Behavior of An Arms Race Model

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  • Walter W. Hill Jr.

    (St. Mary's College of Maryland, Political Science)

Abstract

Three successive models of increasing complexity are proposed in response to some standard objections to linear two-nation arms race models. The behavior of the nations in the final model is chaotic. Even though the posited system is deterministic, its behavior is apparently unpredictable. The behavior of moderately simple arms race models may be more complex than we have previously believed. For large parameter values the ability of decision makers to diagnose, manage, and control the race may be difficult. Furthermore, given that unpredictability is sometimes associated with the outbreak of war, this model suggests a situation in which war can occur without exponentially increasing armament.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter W. Hill Jr., 1992. "Deterministic Quasi-Periodic Behavior of An Arms Race Model," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 12(1), pages 79-98, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:12:y:1992:i:1:p:79-98
    DOI: 10.1177/073889429201200104
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