IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/anname/v697y2021i1p99-119.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting under Uncertainty: How Network Composition Shapes Future-Oriented Cognition

Author

Listed:
  • Ilka Vari-Lavoisier

Abstract

Future migration is central to contemporary politics, but we know little of how citizens and policy-makers perceive and predict migratory trends. I analyze migration forecasting in a representative sample of the population of France, using survey data and administrative records to document differences in the accuracy of forecasting among groups of individuals. The article takes an interdisciplinary approach to future-oriented thinking, conceiving it as a distributed cognitive process , and showing that educational attainment and migratory background shape one’s ability to predict short-term trends. My analysis stresses the importance of accounting for sociodemographic characteristics and social networks in forecasting: I show that social diversity can improve predictions and extend studies based on the Delphi methodology by discussing the relevant expertise to forecast in different realms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilka Vari-Lavoisier, 2021. "Forecasting under Uncertainty: How Network Composition Shapes Future-Oriented Cognition," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 697(1), pages 99-119, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:697:y:2021:i:1:p:99-119
    DOI: 10.1177/00027162211061259
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00027162211061259
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00027162211061259?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:697:y:2021:i:1:p:99-119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.