Continuities and Changes in the Processes of Mexican Migration and Return

This article examines continuities and changes in the prevalence and determinants of first migration and return between Mexico and the United States. The results show a dramatic decline over time in the likelihood of migrants’ making a first trip. The empirical design distinguishes processes affecting migrating cohorts from those emanating from period conditions, paying particular attention to changes in educational selectivity and the legal status of the flows. The definition of cohort and period corresponds roughly to changes in U.S. migration policy and the American economy. We find that the likelihood of return migration also declined in conjunction with period conditions that are related to border enforcement. The drop in the likelihood of return was particularly sharp for undocumented migrants, and, over time, return flows increasingly consist of documented migrants. The implications of these findings for immigration policy in the United States and for the incorporation of returnees in Mexico are discussed.