Water: An Emerging Issue in the Middle East?

A potentially severe problem is emerging in the Middle East—the threat of major water shortages. This developing issue is likely to exacerbate already strained relations between states in the region. A number of aspects of this crisis can be illustrated through an examination of one river system, the Jordan. Proceeding from this example, the first steps can be taken toward an effective theory of issues and water conflicts. Application of this theoretical framework reveals that the water issue means different things to different actors. Water is a highly complex, fragmented issue, which possesses special qualities that distinguish it from other foreign relations determinants. While water is not usually an issue to some actors, under conditions of severe shortage it is highly conflict-prone. Yet the water issue paradoxically is also a possibly unique vehicle for cooperation if the parties view that as the only possible solution.