How many Physicians are Enough?

Although it is difficult to ascertain whether or not the nation faces an oversupply of physicians in the coming decades, there is no doubt that a health care system can be operated more effectively with a taut supply of medical personnel than with a loose supply. The perception of severe specialty and geographic imbalance, which informed national health policy during the 1960s and 1970s, has been modified by evidence of a significant redistribution in the supply. Increasing numbers of practitioners are likely to effect further escalation in the costs of physician services and total expenditures for health care, even if—in conformity with classicial laws of supply and demand—individual physicians' incomes and the relative economic advantage of the profession were to decline. Since the objective of improved access has to a considerable extent been realized, the principal benefit of the loosened supply in the future will be to facilitate the initiation of innovative practice modes and alternative health care delivery systems that offer the potential of improved efficiency and quality.