Nuclear Proliferation and World Politics

Varying technical deficiencies are likely to characterize the nuclear forces of many new proliferators. Regional interactions within a proliferated world probably would include increased nuclear arms racing, inadvertant or calculated nuclear-weapon use, and outside involvement in domestic nuclear coups d'état. In turn, the possible global repercussions of local proliferation are likely to include: a partial erosion of existing alliances, or, to the degree that present superpower ties remain unchanged, the risk of escalating conflict; growing nuclear "black and gray marketeering"; the spread of nuclear terrorism; a corrosion of political authority and legitimacy; and, ulti mately, even growing global anarchy. Whether or not this initial assessment proves accurate will depend upon the difficulties of designing and implementing a proliferation- management strategy. Such a strategy might attempt, on the one hand, to affect which proliferated world emerged and, on the other, to influence Nth countries' nuclear postures, contribute to regional stability, and circumscribe the global repercussions of local proliferation. The gap between the gravity of a proliferated world's varied threats and the probable effectiveness of politically acceptable policy responses supports the fear that the initial depiction may be more than a nightmare scenario.