World Resources for the Year 2000

The argument of this article draws upon recent projections of resource requirements throughout the world in the year 2000, made for the United States National Com mission on Materials Policy. The projections for the world were also made separately in ten major component areas. All estimates for the year 2000 rest upon modern theory and mea surement of the dynamic characteristics of two basic constitu ent elements of materials requirements: (1) the prospect for progress in domestic output in these ten areas and (2) the intensity-of-use of nonrenewable materials, as per capita in come changes. While materials requirements in the year 2000 will grow markedly to levels at least three times those of the recent past, the method of projection gives significantly lower requirements levels than are estimated by others. A basic statistical conclusion is that rates of growth of supply will need to be significantly lower in the future than in the past. Ma terials prices will tend to decline, relative to other prices. The results lend support to the thesis that supply limitations are not likely to limit economic expansion in the future. It is flexibility in the demand for materials that is relevant for eco nomic growth; man and man's institutions have demonstrated their great capacity for such flexibility. It is argued that the mistaken identification of supply shortage with materials crisis rests on misinterpretations of the role that materials do, in fact, play. This point is illustrated in the current energy crisis. The article thus contrasts with neo-Malthusian propositions on limits to growth that are so well-publicized today.