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Servizi di pagamento, prelievo di contante e stima del sommerso: i risultati di un'indagine sul caso italiano


  • Guerino Ardizzi

    () (Banca d'Italia)

  • Carmelo Petraglia

    () (University of Basilicata)

  • Massimiliano Piacenza

    () (University of Torino)

  • Gilberto Turati

    () (University of Torino)


Payment services, cash withdrawals and estimate of the shadow economy: an inquiry on the Italian case - Abstract This paper contributes to the debate on the assessment of the size of the shadow economy within the Currency Demand Approach (CDA), answering to the following question: are the traditional stock of currency data adequate to measure the transaction motive in a cash demand function? In the first part of the paper, we argue that using some direct measure of cash transactions rather than the stock of liquid assets as the dependent variable in the money demand equation would provide an improvement to the traditional CDA. Then we apply the revised Currency Demand Approach (Ardizzi et al., 2011) to a dataset of Italian provinces observed in 2009, introducing three innovative aspects with respect to our previous study. First, we take an alternative direct measure of cash transactions. Secondly, we focus on the tax evasion component of the shadow economy. Finally, we use three distinct indicators of detected evasion. The results highlight the robustness of our methodology to the new specification of the estimated model. This allows us to draw some relevant policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2011. "Servizi di pagamento, prelievo di contante e stima del sommerso: i risultati di un'indagine sul caso italiano," Rivista Bancaria - Minerva Bancaria, Istituto di Cultura Bancaria Francesco Parrillo, issue 4, november.
  • Handle: RePEc:rvs:bancar:11_4_2

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    More about this item


    Currency Demand Approach; Payment systems; Tax evasion;

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements


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