Development and Forecast of Unemployment in the Czech Republic

Unemployment is one of the key indicators of the state of the economy and labor market stability, and its development is sensitive to economic cycles and extraordinary economic shocks. The aim of this study was to evaluate the development of unemployment in the Czech Republic over the last ten years, identify the key factors influencing its dynamics, and propose a predictive model for estimating future developments. To achieve this goal, time series analysis, multivariate regression analysis, and the ARIMA seasonal model were used. The results showed significant seasonality in unemployment and its decline to historically low levels in 2017 2019. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was only a temporary disruption of the long-term trend, followed by a stabilization of the unemployment rate. The number of registered job seekers and the number of job vacancies had a significant impact on the development of unemployment. The prediction indicated a slight increase in the unemployment rate in 2026 without any indication of a significant structural break. The paper provides a comprehensive view of unemployment trends and, with the proposed model, offers a tool for further research and decision-making in the labor market. However, the scope of available data is a limitation.