Institutional Foresight And Strategic Vulnerability: The Case Of Sex Education Policy Under Anti-Gender Pressure In Romania

This paper explores the strategic management vulnerabilities of public institutions operating in geopolitically and culturally complex environments, using Romania’s sexuality education policy as a case study. It focuses on how moral panic and ideological campaigns—particularly those labeled as anti-gender movements—destabilize evidence-based policymaking and undermine institutional foresight. Drawing on critical discourse analysis of Romanian parliamentary debates (2018–2023) and existing literature on counter-movements, the study identifies discursive tactics and institutional responses that illustrate deeper forms of strategic fragility. The research reveals that repeated delays in implementing sexuality education—despite international guidelines and public health imperatives—reflect broader challenges in long-term planning, stakeholder coordination, and anticipatory governance. The paper contributes to global management literature by proposing a conceptual framework for institutional foresight, applicable to public sector governance in ideologically polarized societies. It argues that the sustainability of democratic institutions increasingly depends not only on operational capacity, but also on their ability to manage symbolic threats, narrative disruptions, and shifting cultural norms—particularly in the face of globally networked illiberal campaigns.