Tourism in the Middle East in the context of geopolitical instability and the crisis of 2023-2024: scenario analysis of risks and sustainability[Туризм На Ближнем Востоке В Условиях Геополитической Нестабильности И Кризиса 2023–2024 Гг.: Сценарный Анализ Рисков И Устойчивости]

Introduction. In 2023-2024, the tourism industry in the Middle East was under pressure from geopolitical and economic shocks. The escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and global macroeconomic instability have led to a sharp decline in international tourist flows. The Levant countries, whose economies traditionally depend on tourism, have been particularly affected. In these circumstances, the issue of the sustainability of tourism systems in conditions of chronic uncertainty is acute. Purpose. To analyze the risks and potential of tourism sustainability in the region, as well as to model possible scenarios for its development. Methods. Scenario analysis (pessimistic, moderate, optimistic) based on UNWTO, World Bank, and national statistical services data was used. The dynamics of tourist arrivals, income, and government support measures in six countries were compared: Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The analysis covers both quantitative indicators and institutional and geopolitical factors. Results. There has been a drop in tourist flows in the Levant countries. This is due to military actions, the suspension of flights and the cancellation of international programs. At the same time, the Persian Gulf countries have demonstrated resilience: the UAE has maintained 97% of its pre-crisis level (14.4 million tourists), Saudi Arabia has increased domestic and pilgrim-age tourism. The key risks are the military threat, reputational losses, and dependence on sea routes. Sustainability factors – government support, market diversification, digitalization, religious and cultural tourism. Conclusions. The sustainability of tourism in the region is differentiated and depends on political stability, financial resources and strategic adaptation. The recovery requires a reduction in geopolitical tensions, simplification of the visa regime, international cooperation and support for small businesses. Only an integrated approach can turn tourism into a driver of sustainable development.