Comprehensive assessment of the implementation of regional strategies based on statistical analysis[Комплексная Оценка Реализации Региональных Стратегий На Основе Статистического Анализа]

The most important aspect of the strategic management of the development of territories and regions is the assessment of the results of the implementation of the strategy. Currently, methodological approaches to assessing the implementation of the strategy are simplified. In this regard, it is necessary to develop methodological approaches that would allow for a more holistic determination of the results of the implementation of the strategy, taking into account the balance of regional development. The study used the balanced scorecard by R. Kaplan – D. Norton and statistical methods of dimensionality reduction in a situation of information redundancy (correlation analysis, factor analysis). An approach to assessing the results of the implementation of the regional development strategy was developed, in which the prospects for strategic development are first identified, and then the least informative indicators are excluded for each of them. In accordance with the target values ​​of strategic indicators within the framework of different scenarios of strategic development, the real values ​​can be assigned to the green, yellow or red zone. The application of this approach to the Kemerovo region – Kuzbass made it possible to identify four strategic perspectives: “Infrastructure” (creation of initial conditions for growth), “Economy”, “Quality of life” and “Ecology”. The perspectives “Economics” and “Quality of Life” in strategic planning documents are heavily overloaded (15–16 indicators), so a number of strategic indicators were excluded. Comparison of the real indicators of the strategic development of the Kemerovo Region – Kuzbass for 2019 with the target indicators within the inertial, target and optimistic scenarios made it possible to assess the results of the first year of the strategy implementation. The Infrastructure outlook indicators are in the green zone and in line with the target scenario, which indicates the orderly creation of conditions for economic growth. Most indicators of the outlook for “Economics” were in the red or yellow zones, mainly due to the unfavorable situation in the coal industry in 2019. As a result, it was not possible to achieve the full implementation of the goals related to the quality of life, especially demographic and income goals.