Modeling and forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of the region[Моделирование И Прогнозирование Показателей Социально-Экономического Развития Региона]

Purprose. Development of a mathematical model for predicting indicators of socio-economic development of the region. Carrying out a computational experiment with the developed model and analysis of the results obtained. Methodology. In the process of research, the methods of comparative analysis, generalizations, a system approach were used. The information-empirical base of the research consists of the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and regional authorities. Results. The author analyzed the existing approach to the development of regional forecasts, identified problems in regional forecasting, reducing the quality of forecasts. An alternative method of forming long-term forecasts of socio-economic development of the region using the mathematical model developed using the system-dynamic approach is proposed. Scientific novelty. A new mathematical model, developed on the basis of a system dynamics model, has been proposed for modeling and forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of the region. Scientific novelty. The presented approach to forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of the region improves the efficiency of forecasting tools and provides decision makers with the ability to manage the situation in the region promptly. The developed mathematical model helps to increase the accuracy of regional forecasts. The results of forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of the Balakovo municipal district of the Saratov region in the time interval are shown [2011; 2021].