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Predicting Discontinuity in the Decision to Allocate Funds to Credit Memes with a Fokker-Planck Equation Based Model

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  • Purica, Ionut

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, National Institute of Economic Research, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The model is one theoretical approach within a broader research program that could verify the nonlinear conjectures made to quantify and predict potential discontinuous behaviour. In this case, the crisis behaviour associated with financial funds reallocation among various credit instruments, described as memes with the sense of Dawkins, is shown to be of discontinuous nature stemming from a logistic penetration into the behaviour niche. A Fokker-Planck equation description results in a stationary solution having a bifurcation like the solution with evolution trajectories on a ‘cusp’ type catastrophe that may describe discontinuous decision behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Purica, Ionut, 2010. "Predicting Discontinuity in the Decision to Allocate Funds to Credit Memes with a Fokker-Planck Equation Based Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 295-307, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:295-307
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    Keywords

    nonlinear models; decision; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D87 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Neuroeconomics

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