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Forecasting the Romanian GDP in the Long Run Using a Monetary DSGE

Author

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  • Caraiani, Petre

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

In this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for Romania. In the long run, the model forecasts a stable annual growth rate of about 4.9%.

Suggested Citation

  • Caraiani, Petre, 2009. "Forecasting the Romanian GDP in the Long Run Using a Monetary DSGE," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(3), pages 75-84, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:75-84
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_09/rjef3_09_6.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a BVAR Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 76-87, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting methods; DSGE models; Bayesian methods; real business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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