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The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Summer Forecast 2009

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  • Institute for Economic Forecasting

Abstract

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for domestic policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and informational improvements. The most significant is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transition processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning with 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we consider it is appropriate to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present three scenarios for 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Institute for Economic Forecasting, 2009. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Summer Forecast 2009," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 200-203, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:2:p:200-203
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_09/rjef2_09_13.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.
    2. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast 2011, September Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 267-269, September.
    3. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Preliminate for 2011, November Estimates," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 197-199, December.
    4. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Summer Forecast 2011, June Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 171-174, March.
    5. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2010," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 215-217, March.
    6. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The Dobrescu Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy – 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Spring Forecast 2011, March Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 277-281, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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