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The Product Life Cycle in the Commercial Mainframe Computer Market, 1968-1982


  • Shane M. Greenstein
  • James B. Wade


We investigate product life cycles in the commercial mainframe computer market. We use hazard models with time-varying covariates to estimate the probability of product exit and Poisson models to estimate the probability of introduction. We measure the importance of different aspects of market structure, such as the degree of competitiveness, cannibalization, vintage, product niche, and firm effects. We find evidence of a relationship between the determinants of product exit and product entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Shane M. Greenstein & James B. Wade, 1998. "The Product Life Cycle in the Commercial Mainframe Computer Market, 1968-1982," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 772-789, Winter.
  • Handle: RePEc:rje:randje:v:29:y:1998:i:winter:p:772-789

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Giuri, Paola, 2000. "When shakeout doesn't occur: The evolution of the turboprop engine industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(7-8), pages 847-870, August.
    2. Ma, Xingliang & Shi, Guanming, 2010. "GM vs. Non-GM: A Survival Analysis of Hybrid Seed Corn in the US," Staff Paper Series 553, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    3. Euy-Young Jung & Chulwoo Baek & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2012. "Product survival analysis for the App Store," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 929-941, December.
    4. Iain M. Cockburn & Megan J. MacGarvie, 2011. "Entry and Patenting in the Software Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 915-933, May.
    5. L. Kamran Bilir, 2014. "Patent Laws, Product Life-Cycle Lengths, and Multinational Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1979-2013, July.
    6. Parkhomenko, Alexander & Redkina, Anastasia & Maslivets, Olga, 2007. "Estimating hedonic price indexes for personal computers in russia: Case of Yekaterinburg," MPRA Paper 3135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Greenstein, Shane, 2010. "Innovative Conduct in Computing and Internet Markets," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, Elsevier.
    8. Christophe Van den Bulte, 2000. "New Product Diffusion Acceleration: Measurement and Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 366-380, June.
    9. Carree, M.A., 2000. "Interest and Hazard Rates of Russian Saving Banks," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2000-26-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    10. Alicia Barroso & Marco S. Giarratana & Samira Reis & Olav Sorenson, 2016. "Crowding, satiation, and saturation: The days of television series' lives," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 565-585, March.
    11. Fontana, Roberto & Vezzulli, Andrea, 2016. "Technological leadership and persistence in product innovation in the Local Area Network industry 1990–1999," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1604-1619.

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