Enhancing Rural Households’ Resilience in the Face of Climate Change in Nigeria

Resilience to climate shocks is critical for sustaining rural livelihoods, improving agricultural productivity, and fostering long-term development. This study examines the effects of climate change and the resilience capacity of rural households in Nigeria using the General Household Survey (GHS) panel data from 2010/2011 and 2018/2019, covering 2,800 rural households. Descriptive statistics, an ordered probit model, and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model were applied. Results indicate that 50.3% of households are male-headed, with an average household size of six and a mean age of 49 years, while 41% of household heads have no formal education. Access to agricultural information remains limited, as only 17% received extension services. Households experienced a range of climate-related shocks: 25.21% reported harvest failure due to poor rainfall, 21.64% due to flooding, 10.57% from pest invasion, and 27.36% suffered livestock losses due to illness. Drought experience varies across the geopolitical zones in both waves. The MIMIC results show that a significant proportion of households fall within the low-resilience category, with male-headed households exhibiting relatively higher resilience levels. The ordered probit model further identifies education, dependency ratio, age, marital status, and social capital as major determinants of resilience. The study recommends strengthened fire and flood mitigation strategies, enhanced agricultural adaptation to rainfall variability and pest outbreaks, expanded access to education and extension services, and improved land governance, credit access, and social protection, particularly for women. Strengthening resilience is essential for safeguarding rural communities against the growing impacts of climate change.