Rice, Rules, and Rural Roads: Evolutionary Dynamics of China’s Milled Rice Industry

China’s milled rice imports present both opportunities and challenges for the transformation of its rural agricultural supply chain. However, the mechanisms through which international rice trade co-evolves with domestic supply chain upgrading remain underexplored. By isolating trade volumes, price effects, or food security concerns, previous approaches risk oversimplifying policy design, as they fail to account for how shifts in government incentives, market procurement preferences, and smallholder upgrading decisions dynamically reinforce or undermine one another over time. This study addresses that gap by integrating SWOT analysis into a tripartite evolutionary system to model the strategic co-adaptation of the stakeholder groups. Simulation results demonstrate that aligning incentives across the three stakeholder groups leads to stable and mutually beneficial equilibria, which the SOAR framework reframes as dynamic levers in a complex adaptive system. By revealing how positive feedback loops are generated, the results offer actionable guidance for improving market inclusivity, enhancing rural incomes, and ensuring long-term food system stability in the face of global trade pressures. In conclusion, this study provides a strategic framework for fostering a cooperative, resilient, and high-performing rice supply chain through the coordinated evolution of government, market enterprises, and smallholder strategies. The insights can inform targeted interventions that simultaneously advance rural prosperity. Future research could enrich the model by incorporating climate risks, international market shocks, and digital supply chain innovations to capture emerging challenges and opportunities in the global agri-food landscape.