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Avaliação do projeto “Em Frente Brasil”, em São José dos Pinhais/PR, (2019-2021) sob a ótica da economia do crime
[Evaluation of “Em Frente Brasil”, project in São José dos Pinhais/PR, (2019–2021) under the view of the economics of crime]

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Palmeira Vasconcellos

    (Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS))

  • Marco Antonio Jorge

    (Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS))

Abstract

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho do projeto-piloto Em Frente Brasil sobre as taxas de homicídio e latrocínio do município paranaense de São José dos Pinhais durante os anos de 2019 a 2021, por meio do emprego da técnica do controle sintético, a qual é capaz de gerar uma projeção de como seria São José dos Pinhais sem a intervenção do Projeto. Para gerar esse contrafactual, foram utilizados indicadores referentes aos municípios paranaenses com população acima de cem mil habitantes, limitados ao período de 2014 a 2021: PIB per capita e índices IPARDES de desempenho municipal. O trabalho contribui para a literatura por ser um dos primeiros a avaliar o referido projeto-piloto no Brasil. Os resultados mostram que o projeto-piloto pode ter contribuído para a redução de 31 a 36 homicídios entre 2019 e 2021, embora não se possa descartar a probabilidade de a melhoria ter ocorrido por acaso. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the pilot project Em Frente Brasil on the rates of homicide and robbery followed by death in São José dos Pinhais from 2019 to 2021, through the use of the synthetic control technique, which is capable of generating a projection of what São José dos Pinhais would be like without the intervention. We use GDP per capita and the IPARDES Indexes of municipal performance of municipalities in Paraná with a population over 100.000 inhabitants to generate this counterfactual. This data was limited to the period from 2014 to 2021. The article contributes to the literature by being one of the first to evaluate this pilot project in Brazil. Results show that the pilot project may have contributed to the reduction of 31 to 36 homicides between 2019 and 2021, although the likelihood of the improvement occurring by chance cannot be ruled out.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Palmeira Vasconcellos & Marco Antonio Jorge, 2025. "Avaliação do projeto “Em Frente Brasil”, em São José dos Pinhais/PR, (2019-2021) sob a ótica da economia do crime [Evaluation of “Em Frente Brasil”, project in São José dos Pinhais/PR, (2019–2021) ," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 19(2), pages 240-265, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:rberur:0240
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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