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Avaliação do projeto “Em Frente Brasil”, em São José dos Pinhais/PR, (2019-2021) sob a ótica da economia do crime

Author

Listed:
  • Vasconcellos, Eduardo Palmeira

    (Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS))

  • Jorge, Marco Antonio

    (Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS))

Abstract

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho do projeto-piloto Em Frente Brasil sobre as taxas de homicídio e latrocínio do município paranaense de São José dos Pinhais durante os anos de 2019 a 2021, por meio do emprego da técnica do controle sintético, a qual é capaz de gerar uma projeção de como seria São José dos Pinhais sem a intervenção do Projeto. Para gerar esse contrafactual, foram utilizados indicadores referentes aos municípios paranaenses com população acima de cem mil habitantes, limitados ao período de 2014 a 2021: PIB per capita e índices IPARDES de desempenho municipal. O trabalho contribui para a literatura por ser um dos primeiros a avaliar o referido projeto-piloto no Brasil. Os resultados mostram que o projeto-piloto pode ter contribuído para a redução de 31 a 36 homicídios entre 2019 e 2021, embora não se possa descartar a probabilidade de a melhoria ter ocorrido por acaso.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasconcellos, Eduardo Palmeira & Jorge, Marco Antonio, 2025. "Avaliação do projeto “Em Frente Brasil”, em São José dos Pinhais/PR, (2019-2021) sob a ótica da economia do crime," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 19(2), pages 240-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:rberur:0240
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Em Frente Brasil; Controle Sintético; São José dos Pinhais/PR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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