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Efeitos de longo prazo do ajuste fiscal sobre a economia sergipana

Author

Listed:
  • Ribeiro , Luiz Carlos de Santana

    (Departamento de Economia da Universidade Federal de Sergipe)

  • Souza , Kênia Barreiro de

    (Departamento de Economia da Universidade Federal do Paraná)

Abstract

O objetivo deste artigo é estimar os efeitos de longo prazo do ajuste fiscal, conduzido pelo Governo Federal, sobre a economia sergipana. Para tanto, são utilizadas simulações com um modelo dinâmico de Equilíbrio Geral Computável, ano base 2013, constituído de 27 estados e 67 setores. Nessa abordagem, considera-se que os investimentos privados reagem apenas a alterações nas taxas de retorno do capital e não a mudanças nas expectativas. Os principais resultados indicam que o ajuste fiscal atenuaria, no ano de 2035, o crescimento acumulado do PIB real de Sergipe em 12% em relação ao cenário de referência. Além disso, a nível municipal, os resultados são bastante heterogêneos em decorrência dos diferentes níveis de dependência dos gastos públicos.

Suggested Citation

  • Ribeiro , Luiz Carlos de Santana & Souza , Kênia Barreiro de, 2019. "Efeitos de longo prazo do ajuste fiscal sobre a economia sergipana," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 13(2), pages 268-287, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:rberur:0013
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ajuste fiscal; Simulações em EGC; Economia sergipana;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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