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Investigating the Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in its Effectiveness on Production and Inflation in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Abdi Seyyedkolaee, Mohammad

    (Assistant Professor in Economics, University of Mazandaran)

  • Firoozbakhsh, Sajjad

    (MA in Islamic Banking)

Abstract

The study of the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomics has a special place in the study of monetary economics. Meanwhile, after the global financial crisis, some studies have addressed the importance of uncertainty in the effectiveness of monetary policy. Given that Iran's economy is subject to numerous internal and external shocks, it is important to be aware of the role of uncertainty in the impact of monetary policy. Accordingly, the present study uses the Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) approach to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy on inflation and economic growth in Iran, considering the uncertainty during the years 2004-2018. The results showed that the effect of monetary policy on economic growth is strongly dependent on monetary policy uncertainty. As the uncertainty intensifies, the impact of monetary policy diminishes and is unpredictable. At the same time, the impact of inflation does not depend on the state of policy uncertainty. The analysis of the results provided important policy implications

Suggested Citation

  • Abdi Seyyedkolaee, Mohammad & Firoozbakhsh, Sajjad, 2023. "Investigating the Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in its Effectiveness on Production and Inflation in Iran," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 10(1), pages 165-190, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:qjatoe:0301
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy Uncertainty; Monetary Policy; Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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