Identifying Drivers and Possible Scenarios in Environmental Governance of Tabriz Metropolis

Urban environmental governance, as a complex and multidimensional domain, requires a profound understanding of the interactions among various actors, institutional structures, and decision-making processes. Urban environmental governance is both a practical and strategic necessity for achieving sustainable development and ensuring the health and well-being of citizens. The present study was conducted to structurally analyze urban environmental governance through a futures studies approach (monitoring the past and present to understand the future) and scenario planning in the metropolis of Tabriz. Methodologically, this research is analytical and exploratory, based on futures studies methods, and is applied in terms of purpose. Data collection was conducted through documentary methods in the theoretical section and through a Delphi survey in the practical section. Data analysis was performed using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The MICMAC output indicated system instability. The variables and factors influencing environmental governance in Tabriz metropolis were categorized into seven components and forty-seven variables. Using MICMAC software, fifteen key factors were identified and, along with forty-nine states, entered into the Scenario Wizard. Scenario Wizard analyses, out of a total of 10,004 possible scenarios, produced seven highly consistent and plausible scenarios. Approximately 57 of the forthcoming conditions for the future of urban environmental governance in Tabriz metropolis indicate a desirable state. Updating and enacting environmental laws and regulations in Tabriz, establishing a Supreme Council for Urban Environment, integrated urban management and planning, planning to address environmental crises, and incorporating environmental policymaking into urban planning are among the most significant key factors influencing the future state of urban environmental governance in the Tabriz metropolis.