IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/jofitr/1458.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Empirical Analysis and Trading Strategies for Defaulted Debt Securities with Models for Risk and Investment Management

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes the historical performance of defaulted debt from Moody’s Ultimate Recovery Database (1987-2010). Motivated by a stylized structural model of credit risk with systematic recovery risk, we argue and find evidence that returns on defaulted debt co-vary with determinants of the market risk premium, firm specific and structural factors. Defaulted debt returns in our sample are observed to be increasing in collateral quality or debt cushion of the issue. Returns are also increasing for issuers having superior ratings at origination, more leverage at default, higher cumulative abnormal returns on equity prior to default, or greater market implied loss severity at default. Considering systematic factors, returns on defaulted debt are positively related to equity market indices and industry default rates. On the other hand, defaulted debt returns decrease with short-term interest rates. In a rolling out-of-time and out-of-sample resampling experiment we show that our leading model exhibits superior performance. We also document the economic significance of these results through excess abnormal returns, implementing a hypothetical trading strategy, of around 5-6% (2-3%) assuming zero (1bp per month) round-trip transaction costs. These results are of practical relevance to investors and risk managers in this segment of the fixed income market.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobs, Jr., Michael, 2011. "Empirical Analysis and Trading Strategies for Defaulted Debt Securities with Models for Risk and Investment Management," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 32, pages 59-74.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:1458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://michaeljacobsjr.com/Jacobs_DefaultedDebt_JFT_32_8-11_59-74.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Distressed Debt; Recoveries; Default; Credit Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:1458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Prof. Shahin Shojai). General contact details of provider: http://www.capco.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.