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Productivity miracle in the aging industrial countries?

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Abstract

The combination of aging population and falling birthrates in the industrial countries will have particularly strong effects on the labor markets in Europe and Japan. It is anticipated that by 2050, the supply of labor in these markets could shrink by 15% and 30%, respectively, which would result in a growing shortage of young workers from the end of this decade. This growing scarcity of the factor labor will in turn result in a relatively strong rise in wages. This paper looks at the implications of a shortfall in the labor factor input and discusses how this potential crisis could be managed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bräuninger, Dieter & Walter, Norbert, 2002. "Productivity miracle in the aging industrial countries?," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 5, pages 13-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:1288
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    Keywords

    Aging population; falling birthrates; supply of labor;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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