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Nowcasting regional job growth using payroll processing company data


  • Phillips, Keith R.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Slijk, Christopher

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)


Data from large payroll processing companies are a potential source of regional job growth estimates that are timelier than official government statistics. Monthly private sector employment data from ADP, LLC is available for 29 U.S. states and Washington DC about 10 days prior to official employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using a simple model with real-time data, lags of job growth and the coincident month ADP estimates, we find that for all 30 regions the information in the ADP is statistically significant in nowcasting the most recent month of job growth. Our results suggest that the ADP data are an important source of information for analysts conducting regional current analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, Keith R. & Slijk, Christopher, 2017. "Nowcasting regional job growth using payroll processing company data," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, IOS Press, issue 2, pages 189-198.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:iosjes:0072

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    More about this item


    Nowcasting; real-time data; payroll processing data; regional dataJEL classification: C13; C53; C82;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values


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