IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/integr/023564.html

Protectionism in Advanced Economies and Structural Transformation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India’s Sectoral Export Competitiveness under U.S. Tariff Escalation

Author

Listed:
  • Agrawal Vijay

    (Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra - Patna Campus)

Abstract

This research examines the evolution of India’s export competitiveness using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Trade Specialization Index (TSI) for the four critical sectors: Textiles, Footwear, Chemicals and Machinery and Electricals for the period 2013-2022. Using a longitudinal econometric model with sectoral feedbacks, the results show that trade specialization is associated with comparative advantage, although the effects are sector-specific. Chemicals and Textiles continue to show strong RCA, Footwear shows a negative specialization-competitiveness linkage, and Machinery and Electricals exhibit latent competitive potential that has not yet been fully realized. To these findings, the study simulates tariff forecast adjustments (2023-2027) after the U.S.-India tariff hike of August 2025, where punitive tariffs of 50-59% were placed on these sectors. The forecasts confirm that tariff shocks significantly erode competitiveness. Textiles and Footwear are predicted to decline sharply while Chemicals and Machinery are predicted to lose resilient structural strengths. The results indicate that comparative advantage is path dependent and externally constrained. Findings support diversification, value-added upgrading and resilient industrial policy for developing nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Agrawal Vijay, 2026. "Protectionism in Advanced Economies and Structural Transformation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India’s Sectoral Export Competitiveness under U.S. Tariff Escalation," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 41(3), pages 547-568, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:023564
    DOI: 10.11130/jei.2026003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.e-jei.org/upload/jei-2026003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11130/jei.2026003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:023564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: JEI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desejkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.