Türkiye in the Grip of the European Green Deal and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: A Strategy to Become a Regional Green Energy Hub

The European Union (EU) has established a new economic paradigm by declaring its ambition to become the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050 through the European Green Deal. A pivotal instrument in this strategy is the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which reshapes international trade by imposing carbon-based costs on imports, effectively creating new regulatory barriers for carbon-intensive sectors. Given Türkiye’s profound commercial integration and high export volume to the EU, aligning with this green transformation has become a strategic imperative. This study evaluates the potential economic impacts the EGD and CBAM have on Türkiye, exploring how the nation can leverage its renewable energy potential, the 2053 Net Zero Target, and the national Emissions Trading System to transition into a regional Green Energy Hub through a comprehensive SWOT analysis. Recent data indicates Türkiye to be surpassing its strategic energy targets with significant momentum, with the share of renewable energy in total installed capacity having risen from 55% at the end of 2023 to 62.4% as of March 2026. This acceleration underscores Türkiye’s potential to evolve beyond a mere energy transit corridor into a robust center for green technology and industrial production. The analysis suggests Türkiye’s unique geopolitical position and sophisticated energy infrastructure to provide a competitive edge in green hydrogen production, energy storage, and low-carbon manufacturing. To solidify this role within shifting global energy geopolitics, the study offers concrete policy recommendations centered on financing the green transition, achieving technological independence, and modernizing the domestic legal framework.