Messico 1994: una crisi annunciata

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causes of the foreign exchange crisis that occurred in Mexico at the end of 1994. According to the point of view expressed, the origin of the crisis was the heterodox stabilization policy of Salinas government, based on the use of nominal exchange rate as an anchor against inflation.. That policy induced an appreciation of the real exchange rate, a loss of competitiveness and a growing current account imbalance. On the internal side, the main effect was a comsumption boom. A gradual slowing down of foreign capital inflows forced the Central Bank to make an intense use of reserves, that fell continuosly during the whole of the year. At last, when a new debt crisis looked imminent, the new government of Zedillo first widened the band and then floated the currency. The study focuses in the central sections on the main lessons of the Mexican experience. First, the realization of a program of structural economic reform is not a guarantee for sustainable growth. in the future A coherent and sound macroeconomic policy is also required. Second, the definition of fundamentals has to be broadened, up to include the external balance in the equilibrium conditions. And last but not least, a better information on economic variables (such as a change in reserves) from the authorities would lead to gains for all, including the country involved.