An Investigation into the 1999 Collapse of the Brazilian Real
This study argues that the political considerations were an important factor behind the crisis of the Brazilian real in January 1999. The divided coalition government and a president facing impending elections eschewed the correction of external misalignments and the fiscal austerity at a time when the markets were already excited by the 1997-98 East Asian and 1998 Russian financial crises. The hypothesis is established after confirming the vulnerability of Brazilian economy to currency crisis through Masson’s model of multiple equilibria and then it is tested by running a maximum likelihood logit regression.
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Volume (Year): 56 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
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- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
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- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment,"
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Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1989. "The Political Economy of Overvaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 850-55, September.
- Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion; Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1984.
"Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
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- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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