An Investigation into the 1999 Collapse of the Brazilian Real
This study argues that the political considerations were an important factor behind the crisis of the Brazilian real in January 1999. The divided coalition government and a president facing impending elections eschewed the correction of external misalignments and the fiscal austerity at a time when the markets were already excited by the 1997-98 East Asian and 1998 Russian financial crises. The hypothesis is established after confirming the vulnerability of Brazilian economy to currency crisis through Masson’s model of multiple equilibria and then it is tested by running a maximum likelihood logit regression.
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Volume (Year): 56 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion; Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
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Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
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- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1989. "The Political Economy of Overvaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 850-55, September.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996.
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1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1984.
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1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
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