IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

L’ipotesi Prebisch-Singer 50 anni dopo:che cosa abbiamo capito? / The Prebisch-Singer thesis fifty years later: what have we learned?

Author

Listed:
  • Consigliere, Isabella

    (Università di Genova, Facoltà di Economia, Dipartimento di Economia e Metodi Quantitativi)

Abstract

As regards the thesis that the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods tended to deteriorate during the twentieth century, econometric analyses based on the Grilli-Yang series have not produced decisive results. Many of these have, however, one point in common: the phenomenon, when present, is not continuous over time, but is concentrated in short periods of structural change, a fact which makes it extremely difficult to forecast deteriorations in the future. Work carried out more recently has highlighted the important role volatility in the terms of trade of primary commodities plays in conditioning any trend deteriorations. Leaving aside empirical results regarding deterioration in the relation between the prices of primary commodities and manufactures, we believe that the policy insights provided by Prebisch and Singer remain substantially valid today: specialization in the agricultural sector or mining industry have so far not led to external economies able to drive other manufacturing sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Consigliere, Isabella, 2008. "L’ipotesi Prebisch-Singer 50 anni dopo:che cosa abbiamo capito? / The Prebisch-Singer thesis fifty years later: what have we learned?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 179-226.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iei1946.it/RePEc/ccg/CONSIGLIERE%20179_226.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prebisch-Singer; Terms of Trade; Primary Commodities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.