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L’ipotesi Prebisch-Singer 50 anni dopo:che cosa abbiamo capito? / The Prebisch-Singer thesis fifty years later: what have we learned?

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  • Consigliere, Isabella

    () (Università di Genova, Facoltà di Economia, Dipartimento di Economia e Metodi Quantitativi)

Abstract

As regards the thesis that the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods tended to deteriorate during the twentieth century, econometric analyses based on the Grilli-Yang series have not produced decisive results. Many of these have, however, one point in common: the phenomenon, when present, is not continuous over time, but is concentrated in short periods of structural change, a fact which makes it extremely difficult to forecast deteriorations in the future. Work carried out more recently has highlighted the important role volatility in the terms of trade of primary commodities plays in conditioning any trend deteriorations. Leaving aside empirical results regarding deterioration in the relation between the prices of primary commodities and manufactures, we believe that the policy insights provided by Prebisch and Singer remain substantially valid today: specialization in the agricultural sector or mining industry have so far not led to external economies able to drive other manufacturing sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Consigliere, Isabella, 2008. "L’ipotesi Prebisch-Singer 50 anni dopo:che cosa abbiamo capito? / The Prebisch-Singer thesis fifty years later: what have we learned?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 179-226.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0026
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "An aggregate import demand function for India: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 607-613.
    4. Kevin C Cheng, 2004. "A Reexamination of Korea’s Trade Flows; What Has Changed and What Explains These Changes?," IMF Working Papers 04/145, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Sergio De Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "The Impact of the Euro on Trade: The (Early) Effect is Not So Large," Economics Working Papers 017, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    6. Choi, E. Kwan & Harrigan, James, 2003. "Handbook of International Trade," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11375, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:syd:wpaper:2001-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ronald McKinnon, 2002. "Optimum currency areas and the European experience," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 343-364, July.
    9. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prebisch-Singer; Terms of Trade; Primary Commodities;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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