IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Emerging Economies: A Summary of Empirical Results


  • Goldstein, Morris

    (Institute for International Economics)

  • Kaminsky, Graciela L.

    (George Washington University)

  • Reinhart , Carmen M.

    (University of Maryland and NBER)


This paper aims to identify key empirical regularities in the run-up to banking and currency crises that would enable officials and private market participants to recognize vulnerability to financial crises at an earlier stage. This, in turn, should make it easier to motivate the corrective policy actions that would prevent such crises from actually taking place. Interest in identifying early warning indicators of financial crises has soared of late, stoked primarily by two factors. First, there is increasing recognition that banking and currency crises can be extremely costly to the countries in which they originate; in addition, these crises often spillover via a variety of channels to increase the vulnerability of other countries to financial crisis. The second reason for the increased interest in early warning indicators of financial crises is that there is accumulating evidence that two of the most closely watched market indicators of default and currency risks-namely, interest rate spreads and changes in credit ratings- frequently do not provide much advance warning of currency and banking crises. The other reason why market prices may not signal impending crises is that there are often widely and strongly-held expectations of a bail-out of a troubled borrower by the official sector ?be it national or international. Dooley has stressed this point in several papers. If interest rate spreads and sovereign credit ratings only give advance warning of financial crises once in a while, increased interest attaches to the question of whether there are other early-warning indicators that would do a better job, and if so, what are they? This is one of the key questions we address in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart , Carmen M., 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Emerging Economies: A Summary of Empirical Results," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 4(2), pages 101-147, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0257
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2000.4.2.66

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Iyer, Rajkamal & Peydró, José-Luis, 2011. "Interbank contagion at work: Evidence from a natural experiment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1337-1377.

    More about this item


    Bank Examination; Foreign Exchange; Financial Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: JE Lee (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.