The Impact of CPTPP’s Deep Provisions on GVC Trade: Evidence from the Automotive Sector

This study empirically investigates whether accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a deep mega-regional trade agreement (MRTA), is associated with member countries’ participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs), focusing on the complex automotive sector. Amid geopolitical fragmentation and slowing GVC expansion, the analysis addresses whether CPTPP deepens GVC integration and identifies which deep provisions—Rules of Origin (ROO), Trade Facilitation (TF), and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT)—are most influential. Descriptive trends and Chow Test results indicate that CPTPP membership is associated with stronger GVC integration, but the effect is asymmetric: backward participation shows structural breaks and a sharp post-accession rise, while forward participation remains largely stagnant. PPML gravity further reveals that deep institutional provisions significantly promote integration. Specifically, the combined effect of enhanced ROO and TF is strongly and statistically significant, suggesting that flexible rules and streamlined procedures are crucial for lowering compliance costs and facilitating cross-border production. This suggests that deeper trade provisions are associated with stronger GVC resilience and participation.