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Système de retraite par répartition et chômage involontaire

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  • Fodha, Mouez

    (Centre d’Économie de la Sorbonne et Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1, Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Le Maitre, Patricia

    (Université de Bretagne Sud)

Abstract

The ageing of the population, resulting from both the increase of life expectancy and the decrease of fertility rates will compromise pay-as-you-go social security schemes in the future. Many economic instruments could be used in order to maintain the balanced budget: the contributions, the benefits, the retirement age and the introduction of a funded pension plan. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the economic consequences of several reforms within a computable general equilibrium framework. We consider an overlapping generations model with labor heterogeneity: unskilled workers facing difficulties on the labour market and skilled workers. We show that a reform consisting simultaneously in the introduction of a funded pension system and the decreasing of benefits is Pareto-improving in the long term, but damages the welfare distribution between unskilled and skilled households. Moreover, we show that the increase in the legal retirement age is seven years. Le vieillissement démographique issu du non-renouvellement des générations et de la progression de l’espérance de vie déstabilise les équilibres financiers des régimes de retraites pour les économies ayant fait le choix de la solidarité intergénérationnelle. Les réformes envisageables portent sur le montant des cotisations ou celui des prestations, l’âge de départ à la retraite ou encore le développement des régimes de retraite par capitalisation. Ce travail évalue, à l’aide de simulations dynamiques dans un cadre d’équilibre général, les conséquences de ces réformes dans une économie où coexistent différentes catégories de travailleurs. Nous montrons qu’une réforme mixte, associant le développement d’un système de capitalisation et une faible diminution des prestations du système par répartition, est Pareto-améliorante à long terme, mais au prix d’un écart croissant de la distribution de bien-être entre les agents. En ce qui concerne les réformes modifiant l’allongement de la durée de cotisations, l’âge légal de départ à la retraite doit être retardé uniformément de sept ans, ce qui signifie un allongement de la durée de vie active de près de 20 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Fodha, Mouez & Le Maitre, Patricia, 2008. "Système de retraite par répartition et chômage involontaire," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(1), pages 71-99, mars.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:84:y:2008:i:1:p:71-99
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