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Un aperçu de DRAG, un modèle de sécurité routière compréhensif

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  • Gaudry, Marc

    (Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal)

Abstract

We provide a primarily qualitative summary of the DRAG model of the Demand for Road use, Accidents and their Gravity. We show the comprehensive nature of the model in terms of structure, categories of factors taken into account and parameter estimation technique used. We note in particular how the very structure of the DRAG model makes it possible to decompose the impact of each explanatory factor on exposure risk, as well as on accident frequency and severity—thus making it possible to detect the presence of substitution among the different dimensions of driving risk. We give an idea of the application and results obtained for the Province of Quebec and mention the emergence of a European network of DRAG-inspired modeling efforts. Nous faisons un résumé surtout qualitatif de DRAG, un modèle explicatif de la Demande Routière, des Accidents et de leur Gravité. Nous montrons le caractère compréhensif du modèle, en ce qui a trait à sa structure, aux catégories de facteurs explicatifs prises en compte et aux méthodes d’estimation des paramètres utilisées. Nous soulignons en particulier comment la structure même de DRAG permet de décomposer la contribution de chaque facteur explicatif de l’insécurité routière entre des effets sur l’exposition au risque, sur la fréquence et sur la gravité des accidents — et comment on peut ainsi étudier la présence de substitution entre les diverses dimensions du risque de conduite. Nous donnons une idée de l’application et des résultats obtenus pour le Québec et faisons mention de travaux européens en cours inscrits dans la foulée de DRAG.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaudry, Marc, 1993. "Un aperçu de DRAG, un modèle de sécurité routière compréhensif," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 69(3), pages 203-211, septembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:69:y:1993:i:3:p:203-211
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