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L’incidence du vieillissement démographique sur les dépenses sociales

  • Gauthier, Hervé

    (Bureau de la statistique du Québec)

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    There seems to be little doubt that population aging will increase the burden of social expenditures. Yet many studies conclude that we should not worry too much about aging consequences in this area. The merits of four of the mechanisms or means that are proposed to alleviate the additional cost of aging are reviewed: economic growth, increase in the labour force participation rate, economies of scale and restructuration of social expenditures. We bring up many uncertainties regarding the mechanisms or means proposed. Therefore we should not take for granted that the effect of aging will be easily absorbed. Il ne semble guère y avoir de doute que le vieillissement démographique entraînera un accroissement des charges des dépenses sociales. Et pourtant de nombreuses études concluent qu’il ne faut pas s’inquiéter des incidences qu’aura le vieillissement dans ce domaine. Cet article examine le bien-fondé de quatre mécanismes ou moyens qui devraient atténuer la charge attribuable au vieillissement : la croissance économique, la hausse de la participation au marché du travail, les économies d’échelle et la restructuration des dépenses sociales. Les nombreuses incertitudes que nous soulevons quant à ces mécanismes ou moyens nous amènent à conclure qu’il ne faut pas prendre pour acquis que l’effet du vieillissement sera facilement absorbé.

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    File URL: http://id.erudit.org/iderudit/602028ar
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    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 67 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 1 (mars)
    Pages: 103-118

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:67:y:1991:i:1:p:103-118
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