IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Could be the International Financial Crisis a Sinonim to a Profound Recession of Romanian Economy? A Theory of “Weak” Statistical Signals


  • Gheorghe Savoiu

    () (University of Pitesti, Romania)


This paper consists of a graphical illustration of the Romanian economic cycle during the period 1990-2007, as a background of contemporary financial crisis. The first part provides an overview of the definition of recession and financial crisis, and the gains from using both types in financial and economic thinking to understand the Romanian contemporary economy. The second part formulates a hypothesis of economic and national GDP cyclical phenomenon of “Juglar” type, with two visible evolution periods, the former of expansion and the latter of recession, and between them, less evident, the crisis and the downward. The Romanian market economy crossed two “Juglar” cycles over five electoral periods that succeeded already to outline the elements of electoral cyclical type. Pursuing the evolution of the indexes studied during 1990-2007, one can establish that the intensity of the economic GDP cyclical phenomenon from the first period (1990-1997) is accompanied by the trends of equilibrium in the second part (1997-2007), trends that can be evaluated as positive ones in the macroeconomic stability point of view. But, banking crises are preceded by credit booms. The third part of this paper is devoted to a special analysis of Caprio, Klingebiel, Laeven, and Noguera (2005) banking crisis database. The most important conclusions underlines that a new recession was imminent in Romanian economy in the years 2008 or 2009. The influence of the financial crisis will emphasize the dimension of economic crisis and recession, in general, for Romanian market economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gheorghe Savoiu, 2009. "Could be the International Financial Crisis a Sinonim to a Profound Recession of Romanian Economy? A Theory of “Weak” Statistical Signals," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 12(31), pages 99-114, (1).
  • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:12:y:2009:i:31:p:99-114

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:eco:journ1:2017-06-3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    economic crisis; recession; financial crisis; cyclical phenomenon of “Juglar” type.;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:12:y:2009:i:31:p:99-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Radu Lupu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.