IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rbq/journl/i134p18-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cyclical and Term Structure of Value-at-Risk within a Threshold Autoregression Setup

Author

Listed:
  • Frédérique Bec

    (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise)

  • Christian Gollier

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper explores empirically the link between stocks returns Valueat- Risk (VaR) and the state of financial markets across various holding horizons. The econometric analysis is based on a self-exciting threshold autoregression setup. Using quarterly French and US data from 1970Q4 to 2012Q4, it turns out that the k-year VaR of equities is actually dependent on the state of the market: the expected losses as measured by the VaR are smaller in bear market than in normal or bull market, whatever the horizon. It also turns out that the longer the holding horizon, the smaller the expected losses as measured by the VaR, whatever the state of the market. These results suggest that the rules regarding the solvency capital requirements should adapt to the state of the financial market as well as to the investors holding period.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédérique Bec & Christian Gollier, 2015. "Cyclical and Term Structure of Value-at-Risk within a Threshold Autoregression Setup," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 134, pages 18-32, January-F.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbq:journl:i:134:p:18-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revue-banque.fr/article/cyclicality-and-term-structure-value-risk-within-t
    Download Restriction: price
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected Equities Returns; Value at Risk; Financial Cycle; Holding Horizon; Threshold Autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbq:journl:i:134:p:18-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marise Urbano (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.eska.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.