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Liberalizacion financiera y el sentimiento del mercado: el caso de la economia mexicana

Author

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  • Moritz Cruz

    (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico)

Abstract

Dada la libre movilidad de capital, se asevera que las crisis financieras son originadas por cambios rapidos en la confianza de los inversionistas debido a alteraciones en los llamados fundamentales. Esto sugiere que un gobierno, al liberalizar financieramente su economia, compromete ex-post y ex-ante su autonomia politica en pos de atraer capitales y evitar su salida abrupta; es decir, se avoca a conservar la confianza de los inversionistas. Aplicando un modelo autorregresivo de cambio de regimen de Markov y usando el cociente M2 a reservas internacionales como la variable que es capaz de capturar los cambios en la confianza de los inversionistas, este trabajo comprueba lo anterior identificando el inicio y fin (el timing) de la crisis mexicana de 1994-95. Las probabilidades estimadas indican que el panico financiero inicio en noviembre de 1994 y termino en agosto de 1995.

Suggested Citation

  • Moritz Cruz, 2009. "Liberalizacion financiera y el sentimiento del mercado: el caso de la economia mexicana," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 5(2), pages 23-45, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:5:y:2009:i:2:p:23-45
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    liberalizacion financiera; sentimiento del mercado; crisis financieras.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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